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One of the most popular
technical analysis indicators is
the simple moving average also known
as SMA, if you learn how to use
these correctly they can be a very
useful tool to help you to make good
trading decisions. The 50 simple
moving average, or 50 SMA, is simply
the sum of the last 50 values for
each period, divided by 50, this is
a moving window, as time moves on so
does the average. Notice that I used
the term period because this
indicator works on any time period
in exactly the same way.
It can be used on monthly,
weekly, daily, hourly, 30 minutes,
10 minute and on whatever time
period you want to monitor and
trade. Although the SMA is the most
widely used there is also the
exponential moving average or EMA.
This is a weighted version of the
formula using the mathematical
exponent function to give more
weight to the more recent values,
this has the effect of making it a
much faster average that many
traders like.
The reality is that it probably
does not matter if you used the SMA
or the EMA, what does matter however
is that you use one or the other and
then be very consistent with it. Do
not switch between them, it is more
important that you learn to trust
your chosen indicator then a slight
difference in its value.
The SMA is often used to
determine what the trend of the
stock is, depending on the value
used it could be a short term,
medium term or long term trend. An
important point to note is that
moving averages are really only
useful when the stock is trending,
if the moving average is flat, i.e.
horizontal on your chart it can
become very choppy, this is a good
time to stay out of the market.
The general rule is that if the
current price is above the SMA the
trend is up, if below the trend is
down. This is very important to know
because it forms the basics of trend
trading and
trading with the trend.
For the short term trend many
traders like using a 5-8 SMA or EMA,
here is a trading secret, never
trade again the direction of the
short term tend, actually this is
really just common sense when you
think about it.
Moving averages often act as
support or resistance, many traders
use the 15, 21 or 30 SMA for this
purpose.
There are a number of other very
important moving averages that you
need to know about, these are the
50, 100 and 200 SMA, and this mainly
applies to the daily and weekly
charts. A lot of big players in the
markets, the mutual funds,
investment banks etc use the 50 and
200 SMA as support and resistance,
if they decide to buy or sell based
on these you need to follow suite,
the 100 to a lesser extent. These
are very useful averages to watch if
you trade EFT's like an
Oil ETF.
A useful tip is that when a stock
breaks through one moving average it
will often move all the way to the
next, for example, if a stock breaks
the 30 it may move to the 50 before
finding some support or resistance.
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